What this is

Fear & Greed tells you how the crowd feels. This tells you what's moving the money.

A weekly macro context score for Bitcoin. One number, every week, built on the liquidity that actually moves markets — not sentiment, not price targets, not predictions.

How it works

Three inputs. One score (0–100). Updated weekly.

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G4 M2 — Global Money Supply

50%

US, EU, China, Japan combined (China-adjusted). The long-term tide for risk assets.

🏦

Fed Net Liquidity

35%

Fed balance sheet minus Treasury cash (WALCL − TGA). The plumbing — when it drains, markets feel it fast.

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Market Stress

15%

MOVE Index plus Fear & Greed. Where bonds and sentiment say smart money is nervous.

Weights reflect what drives BTC over time — structure first, noise last.

Aggressive Neutral Defensive

These are context labels — not buy or sell signals. They describe the macro environment, not what you should do with your money.

Built by an independent researcher. No firm, no fund, no agenda.

Tracking since March 2026

Cadence New signal every Thursday

Data sources FRED · TradingView · Fear & Greed

Method Mechanistic · public data only

Philosophy

Consistency over calls Scoring logic stays constant. No narrative fitting, no moving goalposts.

Mechanistic over opinion Every input is a measurable, public data point. No gut feel, no vibes.

Context, not prediction It doesn't tell you where BTC is going. It tells you what the environment looks like right now.